About us
The Thalesians are a group of dedicated professionals with an interest in Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML), quantitative finance, economics, mathematics, physics and computer science, not necessarily in that order. We currently run events London, New York, Budapest, Frankfurt and Prague!
Please also visit our main Thalesians web page here too to learn more about us!
The Thalesians are a member of Level39 - Europe's largest technology accelerator for finance, retail, cyber-security and future cities technology companies.
We consult, train, and write software. Our offering can be found on http://ai.thalesians.com/
Our GitHub page contains our open source Python financial analysis library PyThalesians.
If you are a full-time student, between jobs, or for any other reason would struggle with our Meetup dues, please let us know and we'll mark you as exempt from them!
Upcoming events
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Hybrid Event: Theis Ingerslev Jensen - Prediction Market Accuracy
140 W 62nd St, New York, NY, USIAQF & Thalesians Seminar Series: Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom
or Informed Minority?A Seminar by Theis Ingerslev Jensen
6:00 PM Seminar Begins
7:30 PM ReceptionFordham University
McNally Amphitheater
140 West 62nd Street
New York, NY 10023Hybrid Event
Free Registration!For Virtual Attendees: Please email [web@iaqf.org](mailto:web@iaqf.org) for the link.
Abstract:
Prediction markets produce remarkably accurate forecasts, but the source of this accuracy is poorly understood. Two explanations dominate: crowd wisdom and insider trading. Using the universe of Polymarket transactions, we show it is neither. Instead, accuracy comes from a minority of persistently skilled traders, around 3% of accounts. Unlike insiders, whose private edge is localized, these traders exhibit depth and breadth. They react to public news when it arrives, eliminate law-of-one-price violations, and trade against the crowd’s behavioral mistakes. The crowd, in turn, generates most of the volume but little of the information, and its losses fund the minority’s profits.Bio:
Theis Ingerslev Jensen is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management. Prior to joining Yale, he obtained his Ph.D. in financial economics from Copenhagen Business School. He conducts research in empirical asset pricing. His projects are often data-intensive, and he is especially interested in studying expectations. Much of Theis Ingerslev Jensen's recent work focuses on prediction markets.24 attendees
Past events
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